ABJ Roofing Warns Wake Forest Homeowners That a Strong El Niño Winter Raises the Risk of Ice Dams

With NOAA forecasting a strong El Niño, the family-owned contractor explains why ice, not snow, is the real threat to North Carolina roofs this winter

WAKE FOREST, NC, UNITED STATES, October 27, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ — North Carolina homeowners picturing a snowy winter are picturing the wrong hazard. The forecast that matters for a roof is ice, and this year the odds of it have gone up.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has an El Niño Advisory in place and expects a strong to very strong event to hold through the first months of 2027. El Niño pushes the subtropical jet stream south, which sends more storms across the Carolinas, while cold air pools against the eastern slopes of the mountains and slides into the Piedmont to meet them. That combination does not usually produce deep snow in Wake County. It produces freezing rain, and freezing rain is harder on a roof than snow is.

ABJ Roofing, a family-owned roofing contractor serving Wake Forest since 1993, is advising homeowners to have their roofs inspected before the first ice event rather than after it.

Ice is heavy. A quarter inch of accretion adds load across the whole roof plane, fills gutters until they pull at the fascia, and coats the limbs overhanging the house until they come down on it. A roof that carries a normal winter without complaint can fail in a single ice storm at the weak point nobody checked.
The slower problem is the ice dam. Heat escaping through an under-ventilated attic warms the roof deck from below. Ice and snow melt against it, the water runs down toward the eave, and at the overhang, where there is no warm attic underneath, it refreezes. The ridge of ice that builds up there blocks everything behind it, and meltwater backs up underneath the shingles, which are designed to shed water running down and not to hold water sitting still. The leak shows up on a bedroom ceiling days later, usually during a thaw, which is why it often gets blamed on rain.

North Carolina’s freeze and thaw cycles make this worse than a colder climate would. A week that climbs above freezing each afternoon and drops below it each night runs the melt and refreeze cycle repeatedly, and each pass drives water a little further up under the courses.
Two things prevent it, and both are decided when the roof goes on. The first is balanced attic ventilation, which keeps the deck cold enough that nothing melts in the first place. The second is a self-adhering waterproofing membrane along the eaves and in the valleys, which seals around the fasteners and holds back standing water where ice dams form.

ABJ Roofing is certified by CertainTeed as a Select ShingleMaster, the manufacturer’s upper credential, and installs CertainTeed shingles as a complete system rather than as a covering. Starter course, underlayment, waterproofing at the vulnerable areas, shingles, hip and ridge caps, and ventilation are specified together, because the components only perform to their rating when they are installed as one assembly.

“People call us in January when there is water on the ceiling, and by then we are doing damage repair instead of roof work,” said Oscar, owner of ABJ Roofing. “An inspection in October costs nothing and usually ends with us telling someone their roof is fine. That is a good outcome. The bad outcome is the one where nobody looked.”

Same-day roof inspections are available across Wake Forest, Youngsville, Rolesville, Wakefield and the surrounding towns, and can be arranged by phone at (919) 671-4418.

About ABJ Roofing

ABJ Roofing is a family-owned roofing contractor based in Wake Forest, North Carolina, serving Wake Forest, Youngsville, Rolesville, Wakefield and the surrounding towns. Founded in 1993, the company handles roof replacement, roof repair, gutters, fascia work and new construction roofing. ABJ Roofing is certified by CertainTeed as a Select ShingleMaster, is BBB accredited with an A+ rating, and offers same-day roof inspections. Further announcements are published in the ABJ Roofing newsroom.

Oscar Rodriguez
ABJ Roofing
+1 919-671-4418
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